출처 : (1) How Countries Go Broke: The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Now | LinkedIn
2026년 8월 21일, 레이달리오가 LinkedIn에 새로운 포스트를 올려서 소개드립니다.
한줄 요약 : 미국의 부채 상환 한계와 국채 수요 붕괴로 인해 전통적 부채 위기 및 통화 가치 하락 국면에 진입하고 있으므로,
채권 비중을 줄이고 금·비트코인 등 실물 대체 자산으로 방어해야 한다.
아래는 ChatGPT를 이용해서 요약 정리 한 것 입니다.
1. 현재 발생한 3가지 핵심 사건 (The Three Events)
"The recent confluence of three events—1) the Japanese government selling some of their U.S. bond
holdings to repatriate funds to Japan to support the yen and Japanese capital markets and lessen
exposure to US Treasuries without having to raise interest rates more than they would like to support
the yen, 2) U.S. bond yields rising to new highs led by the long end, accompanied by dollar weakness,
due to both huge current and prospective debt supply and weakening demand for it, and 3) this week’s
announcement by Treasury Secretary Bessent that the U.S. Treasury will buy U.S. Treasury bonds, which
he has only limited capacity to do—has led many people to ask me if these events are consistent with
the classic template outlined in my book. The answer is yes."
- 일본의 미 국채 매각(엔화 방어), 미국 장기 국채 금리 급등과 달러 약세, 미 재무부의 자국 국채 매입 발표라는 3가지 사건이 동시에 발생함.
- 국채 공급 과잉과 수요 약화가 맞물려 전통적인 '부채 위기 사이클'의 전형적인 초기 징후가 시장에 나타나고 있음을 진단.
2. 국채 수요 부족 시 발생하는 2가지 파국적 경로 (The Core Dilemma)
"Naturally, that creates a shortage of demand for debt instruments like bonds and the selling of
them, and when there is a shortage of demand relative to supply that either leads to a) interest
rates rising, which drives markets and the economy lower, or b) the central bank “printing money”
and buying debt, which lowers the value of money, which raises inflation from what it would have been.
Printing money also artificially lowers interest rates, which hurts the lenders’ returns. Neither
approach is good."
- 국채를 사줄 수요가 부족할 때 정부가 직면하는 딜레마:
a) 금리를 올려 시장 수요를 맞춤 -> 경기 침체 및 시장 폭락 유발
b) 중앙은행이 돈을 찍어 국채를 매입 -> 통화 가치 급락 및 인플레이션 촉발
- 어떤 선택을 하든 채권 보유자와 경제 전체에 손실이 발생하는 막다른 길임을 지적.
3. 미국 재정의 취약한 현주소 (The US Balance Sheet)
"The total revenue this year will be about $5.5 trillion while the total expenses will be about
$7.5 trillion, so there will be a budget shortfall of about $2 trillion. So, this year, your
organization’s spending will be about 40% more than it is taking in... And the interest bill on
the debt will be about $1 trillion, which is about 20% of your enterprise’s revenue and half this
year’s budget shortfall (deficit) that you will have to borrow to fund. But that $1 trillion is
not all that you have to give your creditors because, in addition to the interest you have to pay
on your debt, you have to pay back the principal that is coming due, which is around $10 trillion...
So, the debt service payments—in other words, the paying back of principal and interest that you
have to do to not default—is about $11 trillion, which is about 200% of the money coming in."
- 미국 정부를 기업에 비유: 세입(5.5조 달러) 대비 40%를 초과 지출(7.5조 달러) 중.
- 연간 이자 비용만 1조 달러(세입의 20%)이며, 만기 도래 원금(10조 달러)을 합친 총 원리금 상환액은 11조 달러로 세입의 약 200%에 달함.
- 신규 차입(빚)으로 기존 빚을 갚는 악순환 구조에 진입했음을 보여줌.
4. 레이 달리오의 3% 3가지 해결책 (3% 3-Part Solution)
"That would be to get the budget deficit down to 3% of GDP in a way that balances the three ways of
reducing the deficit, which are 1) cutting spending, 2) increasing tax revenue, and 3) lowering
interest rates. All three need to happen concurrently so as to prevent any one from being too large
because, if any one is too large, the adjustment will be traumatic... Based on my projections,
spending cuts and tax revenue increases by about 5% each relative to current planning and interest
rates falling by about 1-1.5% in response would lead to interest payments that are lower by 1-2% of
GDP over the next decade..."
- 재정 적자를 GDP의 3% 수준으로 낮추기 위한 해법:
1) 정부 지출 5% 삭감
2) 세입 5% 증대
3) 금리 1~1.5% 인하 유도
- 한 가지 수단에만 의존하면 경제적 충격이 크므로 3가지를 동시 병행해야 연착륙이 가능함.
5. 기축통화의 본질과 달러의 취약성 (The Storehold of Wealth)
"Stated very simply, currency and debt have to be effective storeholds of wealth or they will be
devalued and abandoned. The dynamic I am describing explains how a reserve currency loses its
effectiveness as a storehold of wealth."
- 기축통화(달러)라도 안전지대가 아님.
- 화폐와 채권은 '부의 저장 수단' 역할을 해야 가치를 유지할 수 있으며, 과도한 부채와 통화 증발은 과거 영국 파운드화나 네덜란드 길더화처럼 기축통화 지위의 상실로 이어진다는 경고.
6. 투자자 포지셔닝 권고 (Actionable Asset Allocation)
"As general advice, I suggest diversifying well in asset classes and countries that have strong income
statements and balance sheets and are not having great internal political and external geopolitical
conflicts, underweighting debt assets like bonds, and overweighting gold and a bit of Bitcoin. Having
a small percentage—maybe 10-15%—of one’s money in gold can reduce a portfolio’s risk, and I think it
would also raise its return."
- 포트폴리오 대응 전략:
1) 재정과 대차대조표가 건전하고 갈등이 적은 국가/자산군으로 분산
2) 채권(부채 자산) 비중 축소(Underweight)
3) 화폐 가치 하락에 대비해 금(10~15%) 및 비트코인 비중 확대(Overweight)